Explanation on (negative) spikes in number of relays

On 03/31/2026, the following question has been posted on r/TOR

  1. Are there any good explanations on why these spikes occurred?
  2. Might those outages imply some centralized infrastructure? If so, how is that not a mayor concern?

[…]

I restarted rdsys a while ago and this seems to have fixed some of the issues, but maybe not all of them. […]

explains (4) which probably is the same as my original explanation: Graphs on Metrics website are not updated | torproject.org

Is there a known (verifiable) cause for those partial outages?

Another user suggested (comment):

I would expect that the downward spikes are simply measurement problems. And I would expect that the metrics are gathered from a single location, or a very few locations. And certainly processed in a single location.

this explanation would raise more questions, such as (comment):

In the graph from 2010 until today, it appears that there were barely any spikes between 2019 and 2023. I imagine there would have to be some change in maybe 2022 at the metrics measurement servers which significantly decreased reliability.

Also, since the count doesn’t drop to 0, there must at least some partial log have been available. e.g. the measurement can’t origin from one single server.

I have now written a project to aggregate the relay count from collector[dot]torproject[dot]org. Following observations:

  1. Most spikes at [3] appear to be measurement errors

  2. There are 4 spikes visible in the corrected graph:
    a.) Positive spike in 12/2014, for around 11 hours
    b.) Negative spike in 12/2021, only one hour
    c.) Negative spike in 01/2026, only one hour
    d.) Positive spike in 01/2026, around 11 hours
    I will have to check if the respective consensus files for (b) and (c) show some signs of corruption (or failed consensus). The relevant logic for parsing the count for running relays can be found at [8].

  3. ) The relay count shows some 24-hour (12h and 30d as well) periodicity. I’m guessing that this is could be due to individuals who operate relay servers on their personal machines.

See also Explanation on (negative) spikes in number of relays - network-health - lists.torproject.org